Current research interests

Financial networks, International banking, International capital flows, Bank regulation, Corporate Finance, Climate risks, Food System sustainability

Working papers

"Do Looks Matter for and Academic Career in Economics?" (with Tali Regev and Yona Rubinstein).  Draft. Yahoo Finance  NPR ConscienHealth Mint 

"Currency-Induced External Balance Sheet Effects at the Onset of the COVID-19 Crisis" (with Luciana Juvenal). CEPR DP.

"Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy" (with Julian Di Giovanni). Draft.  Mentions: Brookings 

Academic publications

Book

 “Foreign Direct Investment in China: Winners and Losers” (with Cheryl Long), World Scientific, Singapore, 2012.

Peer-reviewed publications

 "International Capital Flows" (with Yanshuo Chen). Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance. Oxford University Press, 2020, forthcoming.   doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.638

"Corporate Yields:  Effect of Credit Ratings and Sovereign Yields" (with Julia Bevilaqua and Eric Tallman).  AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2020, 110: 499–503. Draft. Online Appendix.   Replication folder repository.

"Corporate Spreads, Sovereign Spreads, and Crises" (with Julia Bevilaqua and Eric Tallman).  Journal of International Economics, 2020, 124.  Draft.  Replication files.

"Home Currency Issuance in International Bond Markets" (with Peter Jones and Mark Spiegel), Journal of International Economics, 2020:  103256. Draft .  Replication files.

"Shock Transmission through Cross-Border Bank Lending:  Credit and Real Effects (with Tumer Kapan and Camelia Minoiu), Review of Financial Studies, 2020, 33(10): 4839-82. 

“The Euro Crisis in the Mirror of the EMS: How Tying Odysseus to the Mast Avoided the Sirens but Led Him to Charybdis” (with Giancarlo Corsetti, Barry Eichengreen, and Eric Tallman), Open Economies Review, 2020, 31: 219-236. Draft. 

“Aggregation Level in Stress Testing Models” (with John Krainer and Eric McCarthy), International Journal of Central Banking, 2020, 7(1).  Working paper.  

“U.S. Monetary Policy and Fluctuations of International Bank Lending” (with Stefan Avdjiev), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019, 95: 251-268.  Working paper.

“Monitoring Banking System Connectedness with Big Data” (with Jose Lopez), Journal of Econometrics, 2019, 212(1): 203-220.  Last draft. Replication files .

“Bank Linkages and International Trade” (with Chris Candelaria and Juan Caballero), Journal of International Economics, 2018, 115: 30-47.  Replication files. 

“The Euro and the Geography of International Debt Flows” (with Maurice Obstfeld), Journal of European Economic Association, 2016, 14(1):115-144.  Draft.  Replication files.

“Financial Crises and the Composition of Cross-Border Lending” (with Eugenio Cerutti and Camelia Minoiu), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, 52: 60-81. 

“Productivity Spillovers from FDI in the People’s Republic of China: A Nuanced View” (with Cheryl Long and Hirotaka Miura), Asian Development Review, 2014, 31(2): 77-108.

“Do Banks Propagate Debt Market Shocks?” (with Joao Santos),  Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 2014, 6(3). 

“Gender Ratios at Top PhD Programs in Economics,” (with Tali Regev), Economics of Education Review, 2014, 41: 55-70.

“Persistence of Regional Wage Differences in China,” (with Mary Daly and Chris Candelaria), Pacific Economic Review, 2015, 20(3): 365-387.

“Stock Prices in the Presence of Liquidity Crises: The Effect of Creditor Protection,” (with Assaf Razin and Hui Tong), Economica, 2014, 81(322): 329-347.

“Bank Relationships, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises,” Journal of International Economics, 2012, 88(2): 312-325.

“Currency Composition of International Bonds: The EMU effect” (with Mark Spiegel), Journal of International Economics, 2012, 88 (1): 134-149.

“Did Foreign Direct Investment Put an Upward Pressure on Wages in China?” (with Cheryl Long), IMF Economic Review, 2011, 59(3): 404-430.

“Are There Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in China?” (with Cheryl Long), Pacific Economic Review, 2011, 16(2): pp. 135-153.

“Foreign Direct Investment and the Incentives to Innovate and Imitate” (with Irene Brambilla and Cheryl Long), Scandinavian Journal of Economics , 2009, 111(4). 

“Currency Crises and Foreign Credit in Emerging Markets: Credit Crunch or Demand Effect?” (with Carlos Arteta), European Economic Review, 2009, 53: 758-74.

“Do Banks Price Their Informational Monopoly?” (with Joao Santos), Journal of Financial Economics, 2009, 93(2): 185-206.

“The Decision to First Enter the Public Bond Market: The Role of Firm Reputation, Funding Choices, & Bank relationships,” (with Joao Santos), Journal of Banking and Finance, 2008, 32(9): 1928-40.

“Sovereign Debt Crises and Credit to the Private Sector,” (with Carlos Arteta), Journal of International Economics, 2008, 74(1): 53-69.

“Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals,” Economic Journal, 2007, 117: 196-215.

“Rating Agencies and Sovereign Debt Rollover,” (with Mark Carlson), Topics in Macroeconomics, 2006, 6(2): Article 8.

“World Experience in Fighting High Inflation,” Vestnik Moscow State University #3, 1996 (in Russian). 

Book chapters

“FDI Effects on Host Countries’ labor markets” (With Mingzhi Xu) in “Encyclopedia of International Economics and Global Trade”, 2020.  World Scientific. ISBN: 978-981-12-0053-3.  Volume 1, Part IV, Chapter 3.

“Share of Imports and Commodities in Consumption and Investment in the United States” (with Bart Hobijn) in “Uncovering Value Added in Trade” edited by Y.Xing, World Scientific, Singapore, 2015. Chapter 6, 101-112.  

“Capital Raisings” in “The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization” edited by G.Caprio, Elsevier, 2012. Chapter 10, 145-154. 

“If You Try, You’ll Get By: Chinese Private Firms’ Efficiency gains from overcoming Financial Constraints” (with Cheryl Long) in “The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy” edited by Yin-Wong Cheung and Jacob de Haan, CESifo Seminar Series, MIT Press, 2013.

“What are the Sources of Financing of the Chinese Firms?” (with Cheryl Long) in “The Evolving Role Of Asia In Global Finance” edited by Yin-Wong Cheung, Vakas Kakkar And Guonan Ma, series “Frontiers of Economics and Globalization”, volume 9, Emerald Group Publishing, 2011.

12 entries in International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, William A. Darity Jr. (ed.), 2nd ed. Detroit: Macmillan Reference USA, 2008. (beggar-thy-neighbor, currency, currency appreciation and depreciation, currency devaluation and revaluation, dirty float, elasticity, static expectations, overshooting, foreign reserves, economic sterilization, discounted present value, stocks and flows)

“Flight to Quality: Investor Risk Tolerance and the Spread of Emerging Market Crises,” (with B.Eichengreen  and A.Mody) , in S.Claessens  and K.Forbes  eds. International Financial Contagion. Kluwer , 2001.  

Book reviews and published comments

Comment on T. Dahlhaus and G.Vasishtha "Monetary Policy News in the U.S.: Effects on Emerging Market Capital Flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021, 110.  Draft version 

“Understanding Global Banking” (with Katheryn Russ and Jacob de Haan), IMF Economic Review, 2015, 63(4), 693-97.  Introduction to the special issue. Draft 

“Macroeconomics of Low-Income Countries: New Perspectives” (with Camelia Minoiu), Pacific Economic Review, 2015, 20(1), 45-48.  Introduction to the special issue.

Review of  “Size, Risk, & Governance in European Banking” by J. Hagendorff, K. Keasey and F. Vallascas, The Social Science Journal, 2014, 51(4), 704-705. 

Comment on N.Hautsch, J.Shaumburg, and M.Schienle “Forecasting Systemic Impacts in Financial Networks,” International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30(3): 795-796.

Review of “China’s Financial Transition at a Crossroads” by C.Calomiris (ed.), Journal of International Economics, 2009, 79 (1), pp.171-172.

Comment on Zhi Wang and Shang-Jin Wei: “What Accounts for the Rising Sophistication of China’s Exports?” in China's Growing Role in World Trade, edited by Robert Feenstra and Shang-Jin Wei, University of Chicago Press, NBER: 2010.

“Sound Policies for Emerging Markets’ Financial Stability,” A review of Calvo (2005) and Fisher (2004), International Finance, 2007, 10(1): 101-114.

FRBSF Economic Letters (arranged by topic)

Climate risks

COVID-19 and CO2 (with Sylvain Leduc), Economic Letter 2020-18, July 6, 2020.  Central Banking  

The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference (with Oscar Jorda and Glenn Rudebusch), Economic Letter 2019-31, December 16, 2019.

Inflation

“Inflationary Effects of Trade Disputes with China” (with Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio, and Dori Wilson), Economic Letter 2019-07, February 25, 2019. 

“Is Transition to Inflation Targeting Good for Growth?”  (with Alex Philippov) FRBSF Economic Letter 2015-14: May 4, 2015.  

“Pricey Oil, Cheap Natural Gas, and Energy Costs” (with Fernanda Nechio) FRBSF Economic Letter 2012-23: August 6, 2012.

“Commodity Prices and PCE Inflation” (with Bart Hobijn and Rachna Raina) FRBSF Economic Letter 2012-14: May 7, 2012.

“Do Monetary Aggregates Help Forecast Inflation?” (with Oscar Jorda) FRBSF Economic Letter: 2007-10: April 13, 2007.

Financial stability

“Measuring Connectedness between the Largest Banks” (with Jose Lopez and Shannon Sledz), Economic Letter 2019-06, February 19, 2019.  Central Banking 

“Aggregation in Bank Stress Tests” (with John Krainer) FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-14. May 2, 2016. 

Trade

“How Much Do We Spend on Imports?” (with Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio, and Dori Wilson), Economic Letter 2019-01, January 7, 2019. Washington Post  LA Times  

“The U.S. Content of "Made in China"” (with Bart Hobijn) FRBSF Economic Letter 2011-25: August 8, 2011. The Economist  LA Times  Forbes 

“Interprovincial Inequality in China” (with Candelaria and Daly) FRBSF Economic Letter 2009-1: April 10, 2009.

“Did Large Recalls of Chinese Consumer Goods Lower U.S. Imports from China?” (with Chris Candelaria) FRBSF Economic Letter: 2008-17: June 13, 2008.

Asset prices and exchange rates

“How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices” (with Arvind Krishnamurthy, Marianna Kudlyak, and Patrick Shultz), FRBSF Economic Letter 2018-12. May 7, 2018. Yahoo Finance   Bloomberg JP Morgan 

“Brexit: Whither the Pound?” (with Pierre Olivier Gourinchas) FRBSF Economic Letter 2017-11. April 17, 2017.  Business Insider  

“Are U.S. Corporate Bonds Exposed to Europe?” (with Elliot Marks and Fernanda Nechio) FRBSF Economic Letter 2012-17: June 4, 2012.

International capital flows and crises

"Home Currency Issuance in Global Debt Markets” (with Mark Spiegel)  FRBSF Economic Letter 2014-14: August 18, 2014. 

“Balance of Payments in the European Periphery” FRBSF Economic Letter 2013-01: January 14, 2013.

“Emerging Asia: Two Paths through the Storm” (with Alec Kennedy) FRBSF Economic Letter 2012-09: March 26, 2012. 

“Could we have learned from the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98?” FRBSF Economic letter 2011-06: February 28, 2011. 

“What Is China's Capital Seeking in a Global Environment?” (with Titan Alon and Joao Santos) FRBSF Economic Letter 2010-09: March 22, 2010.

“Bank Relationships and the Depth of the Current Economic Crisis” (with Julian Caballero and Chris Candelaria) FRBSF Economic Letter 2009-38: December 14, 2009.

“The EMU Effect on the Currency Denomination of International Bonds” (with Mark Spiegel) FRBSF Economic Letter 2008-30: September 26, 2008.

“Prospects for China's Corporate Bond Market,” FRBSF Economic Letter 2007-07: March 16, 2007.  

Other publications

"Primer on reducing human consumption of animal products" Food System Innovations, 2020.

"What are the Financial Risks from Climate Change?" Econofact, January 21, 2020.

"Global Perspectives Policy Podcast" University of Sydney, 2019.  Listen here 

“The euro crisis in the mirror of the European Monetary System” (With Giancarlo Corsetti, Barry Eichengreen, and Eric Tallman) VoxEU: 2019. 

“Shock Transmission through Global Banking Network” (With Camelia Minoiu and Tumer Kapan) VoxEU: 2016.

“How the Euro Changes the Pattern of International Debt Flows” (with Maurice Obstfeld) VoxEU: 2014.

 “Does creditor protection mitigate the likelihood of financial crises and their effect on the stock market?” (with Assaf Razin) VoxEU: August 8, 2009.

“Lessons from Russian 1998 Financial Crisis,” UC Berkeley Center for Slavic and East European Studies Newsletter, Spring 2001, Vol.18, No.1.