Economics 211B Winter 2019

Instructor: Carlos Dobkin

Office Hours: Monday 2:00-3:00 (E2 Room 441)

E-mail: cdobkin@ucsc.edu

The focus of this course is on learning to conduct high quality empirical research. You are required to complete the assigned reading before each class and to prepare a one page write up of it. Your grade will be based on class participation (10%), your write ups (20%), your homeworks (30%) and the final exam. We will use both Stata and R for analysis and SAS for data management.

The four reference texts for the course are

1. Cameron A Colin and Pravin Trivadi (2005) Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications. Cambridge University Press.

2. Wooldridge, Jeffrey (2002) Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. MIT Press.

3. Imbens, Guido and Jeffrey Wooldridge (2007) What's New in Econometrics. NBER Summer Course.

4. Angrist, Joshua and Jorn-Steffen Pischke (2008) Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton University Press.

Syllabus

(This is subject to change depending on how rapidly we proceed)

• Lecture 1 Ordinary Least Squares and Agnostic Regression
  • *AP Chapters 3 - 3.12
  • Mullainathan, Sendhil and Jann Spiess. Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2017, 31, 87-106.
  • CT Chapters 4.1 - 4.5
  • JW Chapter 2
• Lecture 2 Introduction to Causality and Research Design
  • *AP Chapters 3.13 - 3.22
  • *Holland, Paul "Statistics and Causal Inference." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1986, 81, 945-960.
  • *Rubin, Donald "Statistics and Causal Inference: Comment: Which Ifs Have Causal Answers?" Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1986, 81, 961-962.
  • CT Chapter 2.
  • WNE Lecture 1, Section 2 LINK
• Lecture 3 Cautionary Notes
  • *AP Chapters 3.2.3
  • *Lalonde, Robert. "Evaluating Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data." American Economic Review, 1986, 76, 604-620.
  • *Freedman, David. "Statistical Models and Shoe Leather." Sociological Methodology, 1991, 21, 291-313.
  • Scheiber, Noam. "Freaks and Geeks: How Freakonomics is Ruining the Dismal Science." The New Republic, 2007, April 2, 27-31.
• Lecture 4 Selection on Observables: Regression Adjustment and Nonparametric Regression
  • *AP Chapters 3.3 - 3.5
  • *Krueger, Alan. "How Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure: Evidence from Micro Data." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1993, 108, 33-60.
  • *DiNardo, John and Jorn-Steffen Pischke."The Returns to Computer Use Revisited: Have Pencils Changed the Wage Structure Too?" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1997, 112, 291-303.
  • WNE Lecture 1, Section 3.1.
  • CT Chapters 4.1 - 4.5.
• Lecture 5 Selection on Observables: Regression Adjustment and Nonparametric Regression
  • *Blundell, Richard and Alan Duncan. "Kernel Regression in Empirical Microeconomics." The Journal of Human Resources, 1998, 33, 62-87.
  • Yule, G. Udny. "An Investigation into the Causes of Changes in Pauperism in England, Chiefly During the Last Two Intercensal Decades (Part I.)." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1899, 62, 249-295.
  • JW Chapters 4, 18.3.1.
  • CT Chapter 9.
• Lecture 6 Selection on Observables: The Propensity Score and Dimensionality Reduction
  • *Rosenbaum, Paul and Donald Rubin. "Reducing Bias in Observational Studies Using Subclassification on the Propensity Score." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1984, 79, 516-524.
  • WNE Lecture 1, Sections 3.2 - 3.4 and 5 - 7.
  • CT Chapter 25.4.
  • JW Chapter 18.3.2.
• Lecture 7 Selection on Observables: The Propensity Score and Dimensionality Reduction
  • *Dehejia, Rajeev and Sadek Wahba. "Causal Effects in Non-Experimental Studies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 1999, 1053-1062.
  • Smith, Jeffrey and Petra Todd. "Does Matching Overcome LaLonde's Critique of Non-experimental Methods?" Journal of Econometrics, 2005, 125, 305-353.
  • Arceneaux, Kevin, Alan Gerber, and Donald Green. "Comparing Experimental and Matching Methods Using a Large-Scale Voter Mobilization Experiment." Political Analysis, 2006, 14, 37-62.
• Lecture 8 Selection on Unobservables Designs: Fixed Effects Models and Differences-in-Differences
  • *AP Chapter 5
  • *Richardson, Gary and William Troost "Monetary Intervention Mitigated Banking Panics during the Great Depression: QuasiExperimental Evidence from a Federal Reserve District Border, 1929-1933" Journal of Political Economy, 2009, Vol 117, Number 6
  • CT Chapters 21 and 22.
  • WNE Lecture 10.
  • JW Chapter 10.
• Lecture 9 Selection on Unobservables Designs: Fixed Effects Models and Differences-in-Differences
  • *Deschenes, Olivier and Michael Greenstone. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather." American Economic Review, 2007, 97, 354-385.
  • Griliches, Zvi and Jerry Hausman. "Errors in Variables in Panel Data." Journal of Econometrics, 1986, 31, 93-118.
• Lecture 10 Selection on Unobservables Designs: Fixed Effects Models and Differences-in-Differences
  • *Chay, Kenneth, Patrick McEwan, and Miguel Urquiola. "The Central Role of Noise in Evaluating Interventions that Use Test Scores to Rank Schools." American Economic Review, 2005, 95, 1237-1258.
• Lecture 11 Selection on Unobservables Designs: Case Studies with Synthetic Controls
  • *Card, David and Alan Krueger. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania." American Economic Review, 1994, 84, 487-496.
  • *Abadie, Alberto, Alexis Diamond and Jens Hainmueller. "SyntheticControl Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program." NBER Working Paper No. W12831, 2007.
  • Card, David. "The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market." Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 1990, 43, 245-257.
  • CT Chapter 25.5.
• Lecture 12 Instrumental Variables Models: The IV Estimator
  • *AP Chapter 4
  • *Angrist, Joshua. "Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records." American Economic Review, 1990, 80, 313-336.
  • CT Chapter 4.8.
  • JW Chapter 5.
• Lecture 13 Instrumental Variables Models: The IV Estimator
  • *Angrist, Joshua and Alan Krueger, "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2001, 15, 69-86.
• Lecture 14 Instrumental Variables Models: Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
  • *Angrist, Joshua, Guido Imbens, and Donald Rubin. "Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1996, 91, 444-455.
  • CT Chapter 25.7.
  • WNE Lecture 5.
  • JW Chapter 18.4.
• Lecture 15 Instrumental Variables Models: 2SLS and Weak Instruments
  • *Angrist, Joshua and Alan Krueger. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1991, 106, 979-1014.
  • CT Chapter 4.9.
  • WNE Lecture 13.
• Lecture 16 Instrumental Variables Models: 2SLS and Weak Instruments
  • *Bound, John, David Jaeger, and Regina Baker. "Problems With Instrumental Variables Estimation When the Correlation Between the Instruments and the Endogenous Explanatory Variable Is Weak." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1995, 90, 443-450.
• Lecture 17: Regression Discontinuity Designs
  • *AP Chapter 6
  • *Thistlethwaite, Donald and Donald Campbell. "Regression-Discontinuity Analysis: An Alternative to the Ex Post Fact Experiment." Journal of Educational Psychology, 1960, 51, 309-317.
  • *Imbens, Guido and Thomas Lemieux. "Regression Discontinuity Designs: A Guide to Practice." Journal of Econometrics, 2008, 142, 615-635.
  • CT Chapter 25.6.
  • WNE Lecture 3.
• Lecture 18: Regression Discontinuity Designs
  • McCrary, Justin. "Manipulation of the Running Variable In the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test." Journal of Econometrics, 2008, 142, 698-714.
  • Angrist, Joshua and Victor Lavy. "Using Maimonides' Rule To Estimate The Effect Of Class Size On Scholastic Achievement." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1999, 114, 533-575.
  • *DiNardo, John and David Lee. "Economic Impacts of New Unionization on Private Sector Employers: 1984-2001." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2004,119, 1383-1441.
• Lecture 19: Inference
• *AP Chapter 7